[Trigger warning: Mention of gambling-related suicide statistics.]
I was watching the Olympics. Enduring my 60 second dose of capitalism every few skiing, high-flying, skate zooming minutes.
Then I saw it.
The Kalshi ad.
You can watch it here.
I wasn’t clutching my pearls: Jesus being crucified is fair game.
The Paul Revere part made me laugh. So I wasn’t feeling grumpy.
Poor Amelia. Did you know Earhart was actually alive and radioing for help for several days after the crash? (It’s harrowing.)
… but something about this commercial felt like sand in my socks. Or rocks in my pockets during a swim.
Here’s the voiceover:
“If history has taught us anything, it’s not to root against the underdog.
It pays to know what’s coming.
To chart your own course.
Because the 1 in a million longshot can work.
When the whole world picks Goliath — you know it’s going to be David.
Every great leap began with a bold first step.
And there’s no shortage of second chances.
Against impossible odds… you don’t stand down. You. Swing. First.”
Did it catch and hold my attention? Yes.
Was it memorable, rousing, and intriguing? Yes
Has it gone “viral”? According to them, yes.
So why did I feel so… unsettled?
I didn’t even clock that it was AI until I started doing research for this blog. (We’ll get to that later.)
My Compliments to the Chef
I like the script. It flows. Great pacing. Recognizable stories.
I like the idea. Percentage odds on stories is clever.
The ticking numbers are exciting. “You” are the hero. (Remember why that’s not always the best situation.)
Let’s put aside the mild marketing manipulation — we know the endings already. We get to feel like part of the in-crowd. The winners.
Of course the British are coming! Hindsight is always 20/20 and this commercial massages that pain point just right.
Plus their taglines are equal parts witty, empowering, and clear:
It’s your turn to defy the odds.
The world’s gone mad, trade it.
If I’m selling gambling, it’s a solid concept.
Oh… maybe that’s the problem.
What is Kalshi?
A gambling site where you can “trade” on real-world event outcomes. Like Polymarket. (No, I will not be linking either here. I encourage you NOT to visit the sites themselves.)
On Kalshi, you can bet on sporting events.
Or the amount of the US trade deficit for 2026.
Or if Trump will say “fake news” during the State of the Union.
Does this feel dystopian to you, too?
The taglines might be cute, but there’s something insidious in the shadows.
Why is it Dangerous?
Gambling is already a deadly addiction.
According to the NIH people with gambling disorder are 3x more likely to consider or attempt suicide. ABC reports that 1 in 5 problem gamblers attempt suicide. More than any other addictive disorder.
We barely have rules about loot boxes in kids’ games…
And now you can mainline crypto adrenaline on your phone? Every minute of every day?
The American Psychological Association estimates that 0.4%-2% of the adult population has a gambling addiction. That was before we held a full casino in our hands 24/7.
Of course, the data is still coming in, and it might stay at 2%… but that’s still 12.5 million people in North America.
And we’re glossing over how low income populations have more to gain from a win — and more to lose from a loss.
Gambling? In this economy?
May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor
The odds of winning in poker are predictable. (Assuming no one is counting or marking cards or using a modded shuffler.)
The odds of winning in roulette are fairly stable. (Unless a player is using a “top hat” or the casino has a rigged wheel.)
And people STILL lose their retirement, rent, and sanity at the tables.
Don’t get me started on slot machines.
And you expect me to believe that a crypto-adjacent “bet-on-anything” website ISN’T stacking the digital deck?
Consumer protections aren’t keeping up with technology.
War and Insider Trading
One “lucky” Polymarket user made a cool $128,000 on a longshot bet. “Israel military action against Iran by Friday?”
Not even a full sentence.
10% odds. (That’s 10x more likely than Jesus rising from the dead — if you’re keeping track.)
Reportedly, that same user made 5 other winning bets. $28,000 more. Not a single losing bet. All placed on Israel military operations.
The Guardian traced these bets to an account with its location set to northern Israel.
I’m not saying insider trading is a thing. It’s not like congress people’s families use their knowledge to buy and sell stock… right?
But why wouldn’t you when the rules are made up and the points don’t matter?
The person who placed all those correct military bets is probably just a bold, anti-Goliath person… just like that Kalshi commercial says.
So. Does it make you want to join in? Or do you have a sinking feeling too?
The Ads Were Made by AI and Proud of It
That doesn’t mean no humans were involved.
But the “footage” is all AI. Those aren’t people.
According PJ Ace, they used 1) a head writer 2) a director 3) a network of writers for alternate lines, and, I assume 4) someone(s) to write the AI prompt.
No actors. No lighting. No sound. No sets.
My knee-jerk reaction is: BOOO.
But I can see how the sweet, sweet benefits of this process appeal to some people.
Instead of weeks, it took 2 days to make.
Instead of hundreds of thousands, it cost $2,000.
I can hear the stock holders now: “Flood it! Run 5 more AI ads and see which sticks. Ooooeee, what a quarter we’ll have!”
It’s true. You can experiment more if you don’t actually have to collaborate, commit, or work with a team.
That Sinking Feeling
Instead of casting and filming — it’s prompting.
One week from concept to finished ad.
But what if “saving time” and “saving money” wasn’t the goal?
What if “making something cool with cool people” was?
I do like the idea of more accessible experimentation.
The more art, the better.
But it needs to be art.
I love the flow and vibe of the Kalshi ad. And I hope I love the parts that people dreamed up.
Where the director said “No” to 50 not-quite-right angles. Where the writer woke up in the middle of the night and scribbled something down. Where someone gasped and said, “YES! That’s it!”
I will not pray to the god of efficiency. Of lower wages and higher production. Of almighty capitalism or bust.
Would the Kalshi ad be “better” if it wasn’t AI? I’m not sure.
It might not even exist if it required human actors, time, or money.
And maybe that’s the problem.
Kalshi made a reported $260 million revenue in 2025. And I’m supposed to cheer that they saved some money on a commercial?
Do you remember when big business had to reinvest in the community? Or research and development? Or their worker’s wages? (It was a thing until it wasn’t.)
Now Kalshi’s taking bets alluding to the active genocide in Gaza.
And I’m scowling.
Because we’re probably spending more time thinking about this commercial… than they took to make it.
To hear behind-the-scenes ramblings of writing this unBlog, watch Episode 11 of the Words About Stuff Podcast on Spotify,YouTube, or Apple Podcasts.
Words About Stuff by Amy the Copywriter | Art by RAD Studio